It is widely anticipated that the Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt will want to stimulate a positive feeling to the economy and with reports that the Chancellor will have a smaller pot to play with than had previously been expected it is very likely that cuts and changes will be targeted towards home owners and the housing market as this is an easy way to create a sense of a buoyant economy.
UK economic growth has been stagnant since the beginning of 2022, with high inflation and rising interest rates slowing economic activity. GDP declined over the last two quarters of 2023, meeting the definition of a “technical recession”. Modest GDP growth is expected to return in 2024 as inflation is forecast to fall and the Bank of England is expected to start reducing interest rates. The consensus forecast among economists is for GDP growth of 0.3% in 2024.
All of this means the Chancellor needs to be cautious with changes as over ambitious and changes that had not been properly costed were to blame for the problems we faced in September 2022 when the value of the Pound plummeted.
Novembers Autumn Statement has already set the course for some changes. We already know that there will be cuts to National Insurance, and an increase in the minimum wage. The Spring budget is only a few days away now and we would not be surprised to see reports of some significant changes after the 6th March, including:
Cuts to income tax (and/or National Insurance)
Cutting Stamp Duty
Increased income tax thresholds
Reforms to inheritance tax
Help for home buyers, longer terms mortgages and the resurrection of the Help to Buy scheme
Changes to the Lifetime ISA threshold
All of which is likely to stimulate more activity in the housing market and a positive shift in buyer demand will almost certainly fuel increases in average house prices again in 2024.
Tax on holiday lets
It is also rumoured that Mr Hunt is considering scrapping tax perks for holiday let owners. Of course a move like this could be hugely beneficial in helping local communities our popular tourist locations, like Pembrokeshire, where a high proportion of properties have been converted to holiday lets. But of course this could also mean an influx of these properties being sold this year, which could have a negative impact locally on prices.
Cutting Stamp Duty
There is a large amount of pressure on the Chancellor from certain elements of the Conservative party to make cuts to Stamp Duty. However, as decisions over Land Transaction Tax (the Welsh equivalent of Stamp Duty) are devolved there is no guarantee any changes to Stamp Duty rates made in Westminster this week will be applied here in Wales. One suggestion has been to scrap Stamp Duty entirely for those looking to down size. There are reports that a lot of home owners are put off down sizing due to the cost of stamp duty and by removing it for down-sizers this end of the market will be stimulated, freeing up housing stock for families wanting to move up the ladder